Early in December I was at the Legislative Breakfast for the Prince George’s County Association of Realtors. It’s something we have every year before the Maryland General Assembly has their 90 day session. We like to get to know the players and let our view be known. The legislators, on both the County and State level, like to let their views known, too.
After the breakfast, I was chatting with another Realtor when we were approached by a County Councilman and asked if we expected to see a lot of housing activity after the Inauguration.
It’s a reasonable questions and something that a lot of people ask, especially in the Maryland Suburbs of Washington, DC. After all, this is the seat of the Federal Government and whether Donald Trump decides to move into the White House or not, there will be a lot of people moving in and moving out.
Still. it’s not as many people as you might think. A lot of people who make the Government work are already here and aren’t going any place. An Inauguration comes every four years and there are more people who stay than leave.
The military is a constantly moving part of the Federal Government and the DC Metro area has a huge (or is it “yuuuuge!”) military presence. The Pentagon, Ft. Meade, Ft. Detrick, Joint Base Andrews, Joint Base Bolling and many, many more military installations including the Naval Hospital and the new Walter Reed in Bethesda.
The thing is, most of the people who are assigned to these posts tend to stick around even after the retire from the service.
The higher ranks really are here long term and they have houses already. The Inauguration is just another event.
There is no question that a lot of political appointees are going to be coming into the area. Some of this may cause a little flurry of activity but the numbers are relatively small compared to the number of houses on the market at any given time. The political appointees that are leaving will most likely end up in think tanks or lobbying organizations.
That means they aren’t going anywhere.
Most of the government are career level workers that stay in place regardless of who occupies 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
Lobbyists, Contractors and Service Providers
Yeah. There will be more Republicans and “Friends of…” than the other folks. Still, you’d be surprised at how many people will stay put. Contractors are in place and their contract come up for renewal from time to time anyway regardless of whose in office. The lobbyists may have more emphasis on this issue or that but a lot of times the same lobbyist that would try to persuade the area power brokers that the sun rose in the east can easily shift to the sun rising in the west.
The people who provide the service from Lyft drivers to pizza drivers are all sticking around.
So, I don’t see a huge housing surge coming after the Inauguration.